Linux to ride on the coat tails of AppleTel to the desktop

Tell me if this makes sense. I think that Apple's move to Intel is a good thing for Linux, despite the recent pessimism and doubts about any possible benefits to our community. Why do I feel this way? I think that the primary obstacle to home users (not corporate users - they're a different beast), is change. Not necessarily what would be possibly changed to, but the change itself - the act of changing. This is what's most scary to Windows users comfortable and set in their ways. There's a certain assumption that it's Windows or nothing for home desktop PC's. If Apple plays its cards right, and can get a good 10% of desktop share of home users, think of the mental effect on the general Windows populus. Suddenly, the possibility of something other than Windows actually working in the home becomes clear. Think of the "Firefox effect" - how many people are now using Firefox? Some accounts are at 25%, some 40%. Realistically, it's probably at 15% world-wide. That's amazing since the November official release of Firefox 1.0! How many people even knew there was an alternative browser besides IE? Now, some people I know won't give up Firefox for anything! Amazing.

Take that phenomenon one step further with OS X as a replacement operating system. How many people will swear by their "Mac's" after switching from Windows. I bet a ton of them will. Take that one step further, think maybe 2008, 2009, who in their right mind would then be able to logically say that Windows is the only home OS out there. I bet not too many. How many people say that now? I bet a lot do. Simply because they don't know that there IS a choice. I believe that once the first choice of a replacement OS is widely accepted, Linux, and even the BSD's and other more eccentric OS's will start to gain acceptance. If I can get a wonderful Mac OS X PC for $999 and I know it works, and I know that I DON'T NEED WINDOWS, why wouldn't I go for a comparable, usable Linux PC for $499. That "I DON'T NEED WINDOWS" part is what's crucial.

I do agree that at first, this AppleTel news may be bad for Linux in terms of taking away 'market share', but when have we ever cared or even tracked that? Linux isn't about market share. Never was, never should be. Call me crazy, but I think that once Mac OS X is accepted, as a mainstream, viable alternative to Windows, Linux will follow suit. Again, this is all contingent on Apple's ability to reduce prices and make Mac's more accessible for the average home user who doesn't have $7000 to drop on a new G5 with a 92 inch plasma monitor run by 6 graphics cards with 16Gb of collective graphics RAM. Keep pushing the Mac Mini's, and some low to mid-end Mac's, and Apple will rule a wonderful share of the desktop market, which it will then rightfully deserve.

Watch for Linux in 2007 - 2008