Linux to ride on the coat tails of AppleTel to the desktop
Submitted by alan8373 on Thu, 06/09/2005 - 04:19.
Tell me if this makes sense. I think that Apple's move to Intel is a good thing for Linux, despite the recent pessimism and doubts about any possible benefits to our community. Why do I feel this way? I think that the primary obstacle to home users (not corporate users - they're a different beast), is change. Not necessarily what would be possibly changed to, but the change itself - the act of changing. This is what's most scary to Windows users comfortable and set in their ways. There's a certain assumption that it's Windows or nothing for home desktop PC's. If Apple plays its cards right, and can get a good 10% of desktop share of home users, think of the mental effect on the general Windows populus. Suddenly, the possibility of something other than Windows actually working in the home becomes clear. Think of the "Firefox effect" - how many people are now using Firefox? Some accounts are at 25%, some 40%. Realistically, it's probably at 15% world-wide. That's amazing since the November official release of Firefox 1.0! How many people even knew there was an alternative browser besides IE? Now, some people I know won't give up Firefox for anything! Amazing.
Take that phenomenon one step further with OS X as a replacement operating system. How many people will swear by their "Mac's" after switching from Windows. I bet a ton of them will. Take that one step further, think maybe 2008, 2009, who in their right mind would then be able to logically say that Windows is the only home OS out there. I bet not too many. How many people say that now? I bet a lot do. Simply because they don't know that there IS a choice. I believe that once the first choice of a replacement OS is widely accepted, Linux, and even the BSD's and other more eccentric OS's will start to gain acceptance. If I can get a wonderful Mac OS X PC for $999 and I know it works, and I know that I DON'T NEED WINDOWS, why wouldn't I go for a comparable, usable Linux PC for $499. That "I DON'T NEED WINDOWS" part is what's crucial.
I do agree that at first, this AppleTel news may be bad for Linux in terms of taking away 'market share', but when have we ever cared or even tracked that? Linux isn't about market share. Never was, never should be. Call me crazy, but I think that once Mac OS X is accepted, as a mainstream, viable alternative to Windows, Linux will follow suit. Again, this is all contingent on Apple's ability to reduce prices and make Mac's more accessible for the average home user who doesn't have $7000 to drop on a new G5 with a 92 inch plasma monitor run by 6 graphics cards with 16Gb of collective graphics RAM. Keep pushing the Mac Mini's, and some low to mid-end Mac's, and Apple will rule a wonderful share of the desktop market, which it will then rightfully deserve.
Watch for Linux in 2007 - 2008
Aptel coat tails
It's been nearly ten years since Dave Winer started chanting "Market share is a head trip, and he's still right.
IDC has been saying for years that Linux has a bigger desktop market share, overall, than Apple. If so, where do you see them? At Best Buy? CompUSA? Fnac? Try large corporations, where they're beginning to look like the ultimate VT-100/200 and 3270 Display Terminal replacements. This isn't trivial. In fact, it's a huge factor in the future of Windows and Microsoft Office in large corporate environments. But it gets no box office.
Meanwhile, I've heard huge percentage numbers for Apple in the connected-camcorder and connected-digicam sectors. Not to mention the connected-mp3player sector, thanks to iPod.
My guess is that Aptel will have a positive influence on the Linux desktop market. Especially if you look at growth as a *nix-vs.-Windows matter. In large companies, the combination of Apple and Linux desktops connected to Linux servers starts looking like a cheap and easy (and highly supportable) way to go.
But I could be wrong.
How many of ya'll think that we'll soon see a lot more device drivers available for Linux desktops, once Aptel boxes hit the streets?
Question answered
You can find Linspire(Linux) computers at Fry's Electronics now. They sold two computers last year but have expanded in 2006. They have a whole line of them now. I saw them with my own eyes in San Diego. As far as the United States goes Linux doesn't exist yet but if you looked at sales you would find that companies that sell only Linux to a niche market exists. For example LinuxCertified sells about 400 laptops a month. It really depends on where your talking because in Asia Turbolinux alone has 25% of the desktop market. World-wide Linux surpassed Mac in 2003. In the United States it has a long way to go still if you want to do a visual comparison. Even in small towns like Kutztown, PA you'll find Linux User Groups. When Linux takes off you'll know it- that's about all I can say.
Market share is a head trip
I do agree that market share isn't everything, but I guess my personal feeling is that in this day and age of a the dominant desktop OS not being even close to the best, I'd like to see MS turned on its side in the desktop space. Apple is the only _company_ that can do it. If this fortune article is any sort of indicator as to what kind of interest there is in re-selling Mac desktops, then MS will have its work cut out for it. Imagine all the great deals you can get at Dell applied to Macs. Man, I'm salivating already. Unfortunately, Apple's history and current attitude towards this possibility indicate that it won't happen. Again, it's their fault that they are where they are in the market. They could be in so much of a better position than they currently are, but then again - head trip.
$999?
"If I can get a wonderful Mac OS X PC for $999 and I know it works, and I know that I DON'T NEED WINDOWS, why wouldn't I go for a comparable, usable Linux PC for $499. That 'I DON'T NEED WINDOWS' part is what's crucial."
You can get a Mac for $499...and it probably works with your printer, usb keyboard, mouse, scanner etc.
10 Percent?
According to the Software Publisher's Association, the Macintosh currently has 16 percent. Now, if you want to say 10 percent of overall sales, worldwide, then I'd agree that would be a wild improvement for them.
Uhhhhh But...
Linux to me (semi geek) is a follower rather then a leader. It needs to quite trying to imitate Windows and become something unique and it's own being. And it needs to get a lot easier to install and run before it ever has a chance of being anything but a geek orgasm. Right now, Linux can't stand on its own, it needs to ride the coat tails of something else. That has to change and I'm not sure it will or can.
You're right.
Linux is still a follower, and at the rate it's going it always will be. Linux, so far, offers nothing *new* except trumped up statistics on how many licenses there are by how many servers are sold.
Mac OS X has something Linux doesn't have, which is usability such that Windows users are running around after using it saying, "Wow, this is really usable!". Of course, Apple got that far with it because it has an iron grip on the hardware. With OS X on an Intel processor, things *might* open up. If things do open up, Windows and Linux better get on board quickly. Then again, Apple always takes such opportunities and pisses them away.
Sojourning Through Insanity
Restraint Theory and Windows users
Following your thoughts on Linux riding the Aptel wave to new users - coming from the Windows way of life - you're actually invoking Restraint Theory. Others have described using iPods as creating a Halo effect for Apple (a misuse of this 40 year old social psychology term), but shifting Windows users to another platform requires a considerably greater disenchantment factor. And when it happens it's not pretty, as seen with numerous security experts strongly voicing their "I'm not taking this anymore" concerns.
Restraint theory explains a diet-binge cycle. I've blogged it here for those interested in its application to Apple and Windows:
Les Posen